MLB Picks - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs

Those of us who bet on baseball will know that the Chicago Cubs (37-38, -$937) salvaged a brutal 10-game road trip by taking two of three from the division rival Pittsburgh Pirates over the last 3 days. The victory clawed them to within a game of .500 where they’ve cost their MLB betting backers close to $1000 on the year. The Milwaukee Brewers (42-36, +$349) invade Wrigleyville atop the NL Central, but enter the first of this four-game baseball betting set a loser after dropping a 1-0 decision to the NY Mets as -240 home favorites with stud Yovani Gallardo toeing the bump. The Brew Crew holds a one-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals within the division, while the Cubs find themselves 3.5-games off the pace. Milwaukee has surprisingly lost $$$ for its sports betting supporters in the comfy confines of Miller Park (22-18, -$147), but has put $496 of baseball betting profit in its backers pockets as a visitor where they stand 20-18 on the year. They enter tonight’s game losers of three in a row on the road after getting swept in Detroit back in mid June. Those betting on Brewer ‘totals’ have seen the ‘over’ cash in 21 of their 38 road games. Chicago has been a major losing proposition on the road this season (16-25, -$1159), but they’ve been decent in front of their own fans going 21-13 overall for a modest net return of $222 on the year. They embarked on their 10-game roadie having won four in a row, three in dramatic fashion, last in Chicago. The ’09 season series is all tied up at three apiece after splitting the six games at Miller Park.

BetUS Sportsbook currently has Ryan Dempster and the host Cubs listed as -150 home favorites over Seth McClung and the Brewers for Game 1 of the series with the game ‘total’ set at 9-runs.

Seth McClung has been inserted into Manager Ken Macha’s starting rotation because of an injury to Dave Bush. In his initial start of the season last week against the San Francisco Giants, he threw 77 pitches through four innings and allowed six hits and three earned runs. McClung is best served in the pen as his stuff isn’t good enough to allow him to go deep into many games; just take a look at how he fared starting for Tampa Bay a couple years ago. He’s best served in the pen, and it wouldn’t be a shock if he were sent back there after tonight’s start.

Ryan Dempster was chewed up and spit out in his previous start against the red hot Chicago White Sox where he allowed eight hits and five ER’s through just five innings of no decision work. The outing was his shortest of the season. Dempster feels most comfortable within the “Friendly Confines” of Wrigley Field where he’s 3-1 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP; the Cubs are 4-2 in his six home starts. He’s split his pair of start against the Brewers this year but allowed four earned runs in each outing. He’s had great success in his career vs. MIL going 9-2 in 15 starts with a 3.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP; the ‘over’ is 9-5-1.

This is a huge baseball betting series for the Cubs and their fans. They could conceivably surpass the Brewers being just 3.5-games in back of them. McClung has the heat to baffle hitters in the late innings, but the Cubs are a good fastball hitting team and they’ve teed off on him plenty in the past. Dempster is at his best at home, but the Brewers have gotten to him each time they’ve seen him in ‘09. With the Brewers/Cubs series playing to the ‘over’ in 10 of the last 15 overall meetings and the fact that weird stuff always seem to occur in the late innings, I expect the first of this four-game set to be a track meet. Neither pitcher possesses shut down stuff and both offenses own familiarity. OVER she goes!