MLB Picks - Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox

It's MLB betting time and tonight a pair of struggling AL Central division rivals square off for the first of three MLB battles this evening when the Minnesota Twins (18-21, -$456) and Chicago White Sox (15-22, -$725) meet up at “The Cell” for the second time this season. The Twins have had no luck on the road against the Yankees over the years, and the same held true in their last series at the “New” Yankees Stadium. The Twins lost all four of the games, three in walk-off fashion, and now sit three-games under .500 and 3.5-games behind the AL Central Division leading Detroit Tigers because of it. Once again, Manager Ron Gardenhire’s club has been solid at home and woeful on the road. They’re 14-9 overall inside the “Twinkie Dome” and +$272 for MLB bettors, but they’ve won just four of their 16 overall road games to put their backers in the poorhouse (-$728). While Minnesota has experienced some success this season, the White Sox have struggled mightily throughout the first six weeks of the 2009 baseball betting season. They currently sit seven-games under .500 and 5.5-games off the pace for the division lead. They to just got swept in a four game road series and return to US Cellular Field losers of five in a row and eight of their L/10. The Palehose have been bad regardless of venue. A 7-14 mark on the road (-$561) is understandable since it’s hard to win on the road in this league, but an 8-8 record through their first 16 home games in just unacceptable; especially for a team that was one of the best home bets in baseball throughout the entirety of 2008.

Mark Buehrle and the White Sox opened up as -145 home favorites, but the sports betting public immediately backed the visiting Twins and bet the line all the way down to -130 per the current BetUS MLB odds; the game ‘total’ has been set at 8.5 under -115.

To say Scott Baker has struggled thus far would be like saying the Detroit Lions weren’t a very good football team last year. He’s allowed five-plus earned runs in four of his six starts this season, which includes his last outing against the Detroit Tigers. He coasted through the first five innings, but then blew up in the 6th where he allowed five earned runs before getting yanked. That said; the Twins won all three of his starts against Chicago last season, and he owns a career 3-2 record with a lofty 6.81 ERA in eight starts against the White Sox.

Mark Buehrle had been unbeatable for the White Sox up until his last outing against the Cleveland Indians where he surrendered seven hits and four earned runs en route to earning his first loss of the season. Still, the southpaw owns a 5-1 record with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with a K/BB ratio of 30/12 through his first seven starts of his 2009 campaign. Chicago’s a perfect 4-0 in his home starts this season where he’s surrendered a total of five earned runs through 25+ innings of work. He already dominated the Twins once this season at home, and in his career, sports a 22-13 W/L record with a 3.72 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 36 overall starts.

I was impressed with the way Minnesota’s offense tee’d off on Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte last night. Even though they lost the game, they never gave up and raked 13 overall hits. Chicago’s marred in a major slump with no end in sight right now. I believe JQP was right in backing the Twins at the open, and I still see value in the reduced return. Chicago has the look of the AL Central’s whooping boy right now, and the Twins would love nothing more than to keep them and their fans down. If Baker can limit the one bad inning that’s hampered his production all season, he should secure his first road victory of the year. Buehrle’s been rock solid thus far, but I don’t foresee him getting enough production from his offense to avoid dropping back-to-back starts. Back the visitors large!

MLB Free Pick: Minnesota Twins +110

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